Decomposition analysis of the effects of vehicle safety technologies on the motor vehicle collision–related mortality rate from 1994 to 2015

Abstract

Objective: Though the mortality rate for motor vehicle collisions (MVCs) has been decreasing since the 1960s with the advent of the first federal seat belt laws in 1968, MVC remains a leading cause of death for individuals aged 1 to 44 years. The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of frontal (FABs) and side airbags (SABs) and electronic stability control (ESC) on the components of the MVC mortality rate.

Methods: The MVC mortality rate from 1994 to 2015 was separated into its components of exposure of vehicles, exposure of travel, collision density, injury incidence, and case fatality rate. Year was categorized on the availability of safety technology in vehicles: 1994–1997 (first-generation FABs mandated), 1998–2001 (sled-certified, second-generation FABs mandated), 2002–2006 (increasing prevalence of SABs and ESC), 2007–2011 (advanced airbags mandated), and 2012–2015 (ESC mandated, SAB in over 90% of vehicles, introduction of advanced safety systems). Relative contributions (RCs) of the components to changes in the MVC-related mortality rate were calculated as the absolute value of the component’s beta coefficient divided by the sum of the absolute values of all components’ beta coefficients. Negative binomial regression–estimated rate ratios (RRs) for the changes in the rate of each component by year category compared to the prior year category.

Results: Significant decreases in the MVC mortality rate were observed for 2007–2011 and 2012–2015. The decrease in 2007–2011 was due in most part to an 18% decrease in the injury incidence (RR?=?0.82, P?<?.0001, RC?=?63%), though there was a noted contribution by the decrease in vehicle miles traveled (RR?=?0.95, P?<?.0001, RC?=?15%). The continued decrease in mortality in 2012–2015 was due is most part to the 10% decreased case fatality rate (RR?=?0.90, P?<?.0001, RC?=?66%) because there was no significant change in the vehicle miles traveled and injury incidence.

Conclusions: The results of this study highlight the effects of vehicle safety technologies on the MVC-related mortality rate and can help direct prevention efforts. Through the study period, there was no meaningful contribution to decreases in the MVC-related mortality rate due to components related to exposure (i.e., vehicles per population and the rate of vehicle miles traveled), suggesting that prevention efforts at decreasing exposure prevalence would have little effect on the MVC-related mortality rate. Instead, prevention efforts should continue to focus on event-phase methods to decrease injury occurrence and mitigate injury severity during the collision.     

Deconstructing compassionate conservation

Compassionate conservation focuses on 4 tenets: first, do no harm; individuals matter; inclusivity of individual animals; and peaceful coexistence between humans and animals. Recently, compassionate conservation has been promoted as an alternative to conventional conservation philosophy. We believe examples presented by compassionate conservationists are deliberately or arbitrarily chosen to focus on mammals; inherently not compassionate; and offer ineffective conservation solutions. Compassionate conservation arbitrarily focuses on charismatic species, notably large predators and megaherbivores. The philosophy is not compassionate when it leaves invasive predators in the environment to cause harm to vastly more individuals of native species or uses the fear of harm by apex predators to terrorize mesopredators. Hindering the control of exotic species (megafauna, predators) in situ will not improve the conservation condition of the majority of biodiversity. The positions taken by so-called compassionate conservationists on particular species and on conservation actions could be extended to hinder other forms of conservation, including translocations, conservation fencing, and fertility control. Animal welfare is incredibly important to conservation, but ironically compassionate conservation does not offer the best welfare outcomes to animals and is often ineffective in achieving conservation goals. Consequently, compassionate conservation may threaten public and governmental support for conservation because of the limited understanding of conservation problems by the general public.     

Testing for thresholds of ecosystem collapse in seagrass meadows

Although the public desire for healthy environments is clear‐cut, the science and management of ecosystem health has not been as simple. Ecological systems can be dynamic and can shift abruptly from one ecosystem state to another. Such unpredictable shifts result when ecological thresholds are crossed; that is, small cumulative increases in an environmental stressor drive a much greater change than could be predicted from linear effects, suggesting an unforeseen tipping point is crossed. In coastal waters, broad‐scale seagrass loss often occurs as a sudden event associated with human‐driven nutrient enrichment (eutrophication). We tested whether the response of seagrass ecosystems to coastal nutrient enrichment is subject to a threshold effect. We exposed seagrass plots to different levels of nutrient enrichment (dissolved inorganic nitrogen) for 10 months and measured net production. Seagrass response exhibited a threshold pattern when nutrient enrichment exceeded moderate levels: there was an abrupt and large shift from positive to negative net leaf production (from approximately 0.04 leaf production to 0.02 leaf loss per day). Epiphyte load also increased as nutrient enrichment increased, which may have driven the shift in leaf production. Inadvertently crossing such thresholds, as can occur through ineffective management of land‐derived inputs such as wastewater and stormwater runoff along urbanized coasts, may account for the widely observed sudden loss of seagrass meadows. Identification of tipping points may improve not only adaptive‐management monitoring that seeks to avoid threshold effects, but also restoration approaches in systems that have crossed them.     

Support Vector Machine Modeling Using Particle Swarm Optimization Approach for the Retrieval of Atmospheric Ammonia Concentrations

This study was performed in order to improve the estimation accuracy of atmospheric ammonia (NH₃) concentration levels in the Greater Houston area during extended sampling periods. The approach is based on selecting the appropriate penalty coefficient C and kernel parameter σ ². These parameters directly influence the regression accuracy of the support vector machine (SVM) model. In this paper, two artificial intelligence techniques, particle swarm optimization (PSO) and a genetic algorithm (GA), were used to optimize the SVM model parameters. Data regarding meteorological variables (e.g., ambient temperature and wind direction) and the NH₃ concentration levels were employed to develop our two models. The simulation results indicate that both PSO-SVM and GA-SVM methods are effective tools to model the NH₃ concentration levels and can yield good prediction performance based on statistical evaluation criteria. PSO-SVM provides higher retrieval accuracy and faster running speed than GA-SVM. In addition, we used the PSO-SVM technique to estimate 17 drop-off NH₃ concentration values. We obtained forecasting results with good fitting characteristics to a measured curve. This proved that PSO-SVM is an effective method for estimating unavailable NH₃ concentration data at 3, 4, 5, and 6 parts per billion (ppb), respectively. A 4-ppb NH₃ concentration had the optimum prediction performance of the simulation results. These results showed that the selection of the set-point values is a significant factor in compensating for the atmospheric NH₃ dropout data with the PSO-SVM method. This modeling approach will be useful in the continuous assessment of NH₃ sensor discrete data sources.     

Price Determination and Efficiency in the Market for South Platte Basin Ditch Company Shares

Water scarcity presents an obstacle to economic development in the western United States. Water rights markets help improve water allocation, allowing states to derive the highest economic benefit from available resources, and supporting new uses and economic development. However, the implicit (marginal) prices of water rights attributes are uncertain. To address this problem, we apply econometric analysis to a unique dataset to estimate the implicit values that market participants place on the attributes of shares of ditch company water rights in Colorado's South Platte River Basin. Our analysis demonstrates that ditch company share buyers value proximity of water diversion, reliability of water deliveries, and temporal flexibility of water use. To assess reliability we introduce the use of the coefficient of variation to capture, in one variable, the randomness of supply from ditch company shares that are not a single water right, but a portfolio of rights with different appropriation dates. Finally, we test and correct for spatial autocorrelation for the first time in a study of water market prices.     

Group absenteeism and positive affective tone: a longitudinal study

This study investigates temporal variation in group absence behavior, and the relationship between group absenteeism and the group's positive affective tone. Absenteeism data were obtained from 97 work groups, aggregated over each of the four quarters of a year. The group's positive affective tone was measured through two employee opinion surveys. Multi‐level regression analyses were carried out, in which linear, quadratic, and cubic change trends were tested as predictors of change over time in group absenteeism. All three change trends explained unique variance in the group absenteeism data, indicating that the level of group absenteeism changes over time. We also found that there was significant variation between groups in the strength and direction of the linear and quadratic change trends. Positive affective tone was negatively related to the level of group absenteeism, and change in positive affective tone predicted the strength and direction of the linear change trend for group absenteeism. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The growth response of Alternanthera philoxeroides in a simulated post-combustion emission with ultrahigh [CO2] and acidic pollutants

Although post-combustion emissions from power plants are a major source of air pollution, they contain excess CO₂ that could be used to fertilize commercial greenhouses and stimulate plant growth. We addressed the combined effects of ultrahigh [CO₂] and acidic pollutants in flue gas on the growth of Alternanthera philoxeroides. When acidic pollutants were excluded, the biomass yield of A. philoxeroides saturated near 2000 μmol mol⁻¹ [CO₂] with doubled biomass accumulation relative to the ambient control. The growth enhancement was maintained at 5000 μmol mol⁻¹ [CO₂], but declined when [CO₂] rose above 1%, in association with a strong photosynthetic inhibition. Although acidic components (SO₂ and NO₂) significantly offset the CO₂ enhancement, the aboveground yield increased considerably when the concentration of pollutants was moderate (200 times dilution). Our results indicate that using excess CO₂ from the power plant emissions to optimize growth in commercial green house could be viable.